Statistical analysis of straits of mackinac line 5. Worst case discharge wcd for exploratory and development drilling. Cover for oil spill environmental forensics case studies. The government needs to be aware of the worstcase scenarios in order to manage and mitagate to prevent them. Bp oil spill worse than exxon valdez, according to government. Jul 19, 2018 hundreds of miles of great lakes shoreline would be spoiled under a worstcase scenario oil spill in michigans straits of mackinac, scientists reported thursday. Bps pr blunders mirror exxons, appear destined for record book.
The worstcase scenario survival handbook by joshua piven. Offshore drilling has dug itself a deeper hole since. Bp oil spill worse than exxon valdez, according to. In a truly worst case, oil and perhaps dissolved methane as well would hitch a ride on ocean currents out to the deep atlantic, spreading ecological destruction far and wide. Its been 10 years since flames engulfed the deepwater horizon drilling rig in the gulf of mexico, killing 11 workers and triggering the largest accidental oil spill in u. The series first entry, the worstcase scenario survival handbook, sold over 10 million copies worldwide and prompted a series of related books, games, calendars, and two television series. The oil could continue to spill out for more than two years, according to experts. History offers stepbystep illustrated scenarios on how to win a joust, survive in a dungeon, and overcome other plights of yesteryear, but the volume also features hundreds of pages of.
Critics call for release of worstcase scenario data to describe the oil spill disaster. That larger figure would be nearly four times the size of the exxon valdez disaster, in which a tanker ran aground in alaska in 1989. Government covers up bp oil spill worst case scenario. What is the worst case scenario for the deepwater horizon oil. Company lowers worstcase scenario for california oil spill. Inadequate risk assessments a study on worstcase scenarios. Beyond the worst case scenario regulations clearly state that facilities must plan for the worst. Already, deepwater horizon is the not only the worst oil spill, but the worst. Cleanup costs and lawsuits rattle bps investors the new. The report does not provide information on crude oil spill dispersion, fate and. The third is a tongue in cheek look at industry responses to peak oil. Hundreds of miles of great lakes shoreline would be spoiled under a worstcase scenario oil spill in michigans straits of mackinac, scientists reported thursday. Much has been learned in the wake of dwh and these lessons should in turn be applied to both similar oil spill scenarios and those arising from frontier.
It is the worst accidental offshore oil spill in history. Sep 15, 2016 for an rmp worst case consequence analysis for a toxic substance, the scenario must use. When you follow a story, the next time a related article is published it could be days. The oil slick spreading across the gulf of mexico has shattered the notion that offshore drilling had become safe. May 16, 2019 if a spill was to travel down to, say, waikiki that is our worst case scenario spill, tanaka said. Ten years after the deepwater horizon oil spill, were on. If youre required to perform hazard analyses under the risk management planning rmp rule or the emergency planning and community righttoknow act epcra, then you can use some of the tools in the cameo software suite to help you assess what might happen if a significant chemical release occurred for rmp, you can use either rmpcomp or aloha for epcra, you can use the.
This is a nononsense, nofooling around guide with straightforward information. For an rmp worst case consequence analysis for a toxic substance, the scenario must use. It was based on a real disaster which almost happened in 1973, and in two weeks it may come closer to happening than. Bp officials tuesday told congressional representatives that the gulf of mexico oil spill could grow at a rate more than 10 times current estimates in a worstcase scenario greatly enlarging. The prestige oil spill may be considered as one of the worst in the last years because of the amount of oil spilled 59,000 tons at the moment and the wide zone affected. The impact of an oil spill on commercial fisheries and aquaculture would depend, for instance, upon factors including the oil spills volume and location relative to fishingcultivation areas. Worstcase scenario is the name of a series of merchandise based on a 1999 book written by joshua piven and david borgenicht and published by chronicle books. That does not mean that the media should hyperventilate about the worst case scenarios to the public. Louie gohmert of texas claims he drove along the gulf coast looking for oil after deepwater horizon exploded but found only a drop or two here and there.
How shell plans to deal with a worst case scenario oil spill in the alaskan arctic. In the photo above, the well gushes on june 23 after the containment cap was. Authors representing academic, government, and private researcher groups from 14 countries bring a diverse and global perspective to this volume. The offshore oil rig deepwater horizon exploded, causing one of the worst environmental catastrophes in american history. A massive oil spill blankets the sea, threatening birds, fish and the local economy. Oil spill environmental forensics case studies sciencedirect.
Bps tony hayward and the failure of leadership accountability. From the depth of 1500 m, oil was deposited to the seafloor, formed a plume in the deep water, ascended to the surface, and contaminated the. The boem worst case discharge model outputs are also used by bsee in oil spill. Every day for months on end, more than a million gallons of oil leaked into the water. Faced with a worstcase scenario of an oil spill the size of the exxon valdez reaching the gulfs vibrant wetlands, surely bp and interior would have done more both to ensure that the blowout prevention systems were reliable, and to prepare a rapid response to a catastrophic leak.
The worstcase scenario for the broken and leaking well gushing oil into the gulf of mexico would be the loss of the wellhead currently restricting the flow to 5,000 barrels or 210,000 gallons. A risk analysis approach has become central to this decision, where the probability of a worstcase scenario a major oil spill is assessed together with. They offer a rare comprehensive look at decisionmaking in a crisis that is immediate, highly detailed and even harsh in its assessment. Here is a timeline on the gulf of mexico oil spill and its impact since an explosion on a rig killed 11 workers. The worstcase scenario for the broken and leaking well gushing oil into the gulf of mexico would be the loss of the wellhead currently. Estimates of the rate of oil spillage from the deepwater horizon wellhead just keep gushing the latest official number. Based upon this analysis three worst case scenarios were defined and from these corresponding oil spill modelling scenarios developed and then used as.
English bay oil spill debrief and tanker scenario planning workshop. Analysis of worstcase spills from the proposed keystone. Oil spill environmental forensics case studies includes 34 chapters that serve to present various aspects of environmental forensics in relation to realworld oil spill case studies from around the globe. Those with deepseated fears about killer bees, quicksand, mountain lions and sharks will enjoy the worstcase scenario survival handbook by joshua piven and david borgenicht, a handy little book for the extremely prepared that is climbing the bestseller list. Estimates of the rate of oil spillage from the deepwater horizon wellhead continue. Cmon, how big is the gulf of mexico oil spill, really. Indeed, deepwater horizon is not the worst case scenario. The montara oil spill was an oil and gas leak and subsequent slick that took place in the montara oil field in the timor sea, off the northern coast of western australia. The worst case scenario for the broken and leaking well gushing oil into the gulf of mexico would be the loss of the wellhead currently. Future oil spills may not look like deepwater horizon, macdonald said in a recent call with reporters. Yet, 10 years after the bp spill, oil companies are pushing to extract fossil fuels at riskier depths. Bryan walsh time as an environmental disaster, the oil spill in the gulf of mexico just keeps getting worse. Government covers up bp oil spill worst case scenario the young turks. Note that you can use a less stable atmospheric class andor higher wind speed if those conditions prevailed at all times during the previous three years.
Bestseller history repeats itself with this dynamic new almanac format that broadens the scope and content of the worst case scenario handbooks. Official estimates for the flow of oil out of the deepwater horizon well may be just a drop in the bucket. May 27, 2010 in the worst case scenario, 39 million gallons have leaked. There are new worstcase scenarios that the industry still isnt prepared for. May 10, 2010 the oil slick spreading across the gulf of mexico has shattered the notion that offshore drilling had become safe. People are cancelling fishing vacations in western louisiana where there is zero threat of oil crossing the mississippi river current. How shell plans to deal with a worstcasescenario oil. Disaster contingency plans are fantasy documents when it comes to. Aug 04, 2010 here is a timeline on the gulf of mexico oil spill and its impact since an explosion on a rig killed 11 workers. For an rmp worstcase consequence analysis for a toxic substance, the scenario must use. R eports from the gulf of mexico just keep getting worse.
Worst case discharge scenarios for oil and gas offshore facilities. In the worstcase scenario, 39 million gallons have leaked. This assumption is consistent with the worst case scenario. It is considered one of australias worst oil disasters. Whats the worstcase scenario for bps oil spill trial. The worst case, best case, and mostlikely scenarios reports from the gulf of mexico just keep getting worse. Scenarios and responses to future deep oil spills fighting the. Somewhere, you might want to bring in the lusi mudflow in indonesia.
To use aloha, susan will need to use the rmpspecified scenario conditions and determine appropriate values for the additional scenario inputs that the aloha model requires. One of the panels was actually slightly more plausible than the others. For the economies of coastal states, a worstcase leakage scenario would be utterly devastating. Of course engineers matter, when the task is stemming damage from the largest oil spill in u. Economic damages from a worstcase oil spill in the straits. The slick was released following a blowout from the montara wellhead platform on 21 august 2009, and continued leaking until 3 november 2009 in total 75 days, when the. President obama called the oil spill off the gulf coast a. Buras, louisiana bp plc estimates that a worst case scenario rate for the gulf of mexico oil spill could be about 100,000 barrels of oil per day, according to an internal company document released sunday by a senior u.
Last year i drew a comic about the oil spill in which michael bay spun an overthetop worstcase disaster scenario. Achenblog more worstcase scenarios in gulf oil spill. The worstcase, bestcase, and mostlikely scenarios reports from the gulf of mexico just keep getting worse. The worstcase scenario survival handbook worst case. Late on thursday, april 29, bp the energy company that operates the sunken deepwater horizon rig and is financially responsible for the spill revealed that oil was leaking from the burst well at a rate of 5,000 bbl. It was based on a real disaster which almost happened in 1973, and in two weeks it.
June 20, 2010 post carbon institute reports from the gulf of mexico just keep getting worse. Worst case discharge determination bureau of ocean energy. May 25, 2015 the follow this story feature will notify you when any articles related to this story are posted. Participants were presented with a credible worst case spill scenario, consistent with trans. A worst case scenario spill from the enbridge energy line 5 pipeline through the straits of mackinac would affect more than 400 miles of shoreline in michigan, wisconsin and canada, according to a. Defining a worstcase release scenario for the enbridge crude oil. As the oil company bp frantically tried to stop the spill, scientists and emergency response crews searched for ways to repair the damage.
Dont oil companies model worstcase scenarios and make plans for how. The company responsible assures the country that the impact is small, and a top executive promises financial. In the worst case scenario, 39 million gallons have leaked. May 01, 2010 official estimates for the flow of oil out of the deepwater horizon well may be just a drop in the bucket. Critics call for release of worst case scenario data to describe the oil spill disaster. What is the worst case scenario for the deepwater horizon. The reader gives an outline of the worst case scenario for the oil spill, and why he thinks that worst case is upon us. Mar 17, 2016 the next two pages in this series go stepbystep through the process of using aloha to generate the required output for the worst case and alternative analyses for a fictional water treatment plant. May 06, 2010 bp officials tuesday told congressional representatives that the gulf of mexico oil spill could grow at a rate more than 10 times current estimates in a worstcase scenario greatly enlarging.
The environment, tourism, commercial flights, business transactions along the coast line. Markey, the democrat of massachusetts who heads the house select committee on energy independence and global warming, has released a bp document providing an early worstcase estimate of the oil flow up the casing of the wrecked gulf of mexico well that is dozens of times higher than the companys initial public estimates. May 04, 2010 the government needs to be aware of the worst case scenarios in order to manage and mitagate to prevent them. The worstcase scenario for the gulf coast oil catastrophe. The deepwater horizon oil spill dwh is recognized as the worst oil spill in the u. The worstcase scenario survival handbook by joshua piven and david borgenicht is just the thing to have on your desk when you discover the check was not in the mail or the printer can not deliver the job on time or you do not have a backup of that critical, but hopelessly corrupted, file. It also highlights ways scientists clean up both small and large oil spills. The last major discharge one greater than 100,000 gallons in the coastal zone occurred in 1987 when jet fuel leaked from a pipeline into pearl. Oil spill environmental forensics case studies 1st edition. The follow this story feature will notify you when any articles related to this story are posted.
Gulf spill bps pr blunders mirror exxons, appear destined for record book. This novel method can become a useful and simple tool in the forensic techniques tool box of. Economic damages from a worstcase oil spill in the. Apr 30, 2010 bryan walsh time as an environmental disaster, the oil spill in the gulf of mexico just keeps getting worse. Jun 21, 2010 the oil could continue to spill out for more than two years, according to experts. My geology professor from way back sent me his worstcase scenario for the gulf disaster.
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